Will US Campus Protests De-rail Biden’s Re-election Chances?
Pro-Palestinian student protests have led Biden to be attacked from both the left and right on the issue, potentially diminishing his re-election hopes.
Columbia first Gaza Solidarity Encampment post NYPD arrests - photo via Wikimedia Commons
In recent weeks, US politics has become dominated by debates about the wave of pro-Palestinian student protests on US college campuses. The phenomena began at Columbia University in New York on April 17, when students set up tents in an encampment on the campus’s east lawn and declared their solidarity with Palestine. Since then, 80 encampments have been erected at colleges across the country, with activists demanding a divestment by colleges from Israeli companies.
The protests have become sites of disorder and chaos, with police storming the encampments and committing more than 2,300 arrests nationally. Despite claims by activists and faculties alike that the demonstrations have been peaceful, allegations of property destruction have led to a heavy police presence at campus protests, most often at the request of university administrations, with severe force used against activists.
The peak of the tensions came with the arrest of more than 200 students in a single evening at UCLA last week , forcing President Biden to address the situation. In a speech, Biden claimed that “dissent must never lead to disorder” and that students “do not have the right to cause chaos” despite holding the “right to protest.” The delicacy of this statement reflects the political conundrum facing Biden as he is torn between risking alienating the progressive Left of his party and the youth vote. However, the President also risks appearing weak on law and order, subsequently providing Republicans with ammunition to hurt his re-election chances.
Republicans have seized on the issue as an expedient political tool. Trump called for a “COMPLETE LOCKDOWN” of campuses on his social media platform Truth Social, while later praising the violent police crackdown on the protestors. Moreover, right wing media outlets like Fox News have framed the protests as an indicator of Biden’s inefficiency and the chaos of his presidency, with one host claiming that they resembled the scenes of a “third world country.”
“The salience of these protests and their relationship to wider debates over the US’s role in providing arms and aid to Israel will certainly loom large in the Presidential election.”
Meanwhile, the protests have exacerbated the internal divisions of the Democratic Party. Progressives such as Rep. Pramila Jayapa sympathise with the cause and actions of the protestors and have urged Biden to support the movement: “he could say that this is a critically important moment, and people feel very strongly…They are protesting this war, and they’re protesting the United States’ involvement.”
The salience of these protests and their relationship to wider debates over the US’s role in providing arms and aid to Israel will certainly loom large in the Presidential election. However, this presents an electoral liability for Biden who appears to anger both the Left and Right on his stance on the issue. Trailing Trump by 6 points in the latest CNN national poll, the incumbent cannot afford to alienate both sides.
Columbia Encampment and Protesters being interviewed - photo via Wikimedia Commons
Our Analysis:
The difficult balancing act Biden has been forced to perform since the outbreak of these protests has left the President with a polling problem. In 2020, Biden arguably won the electoral college with support from young voters, winning 60% of voters aged 18-29 and inspiring an 11 point increase in youth turnout from the previous election. This group represented one of Biden’s most successful electoral coalitions and a core demographic he would need to tap into again to ensure re-election. However, the protests symbolise a growing disenchantment between Biden and young voters who resent his stance on Gaza. This alienation is reflected in recent polls as 36% of voters aged 18-29 claim that Biden is favouring Israel too much and 45% of 18-29 year olds either oppose or strongly oppose the delivery of US military aid to Israel . Political analyst Amy Walter argues that this poses a severe electoral risk of youth apathy because of a“ small percentage of younger people who feel very strongly about this issue and say, ‘I cannot vote for Trump, but Biden is no good, I’m staying home.’” Without the support of one of his core demographics, Biden’s re-election chances become elusive.
Youth voters are not the only coalition that Biden risks losing. Muslim voters are equally critical of the President and disinclined to vote for him given his position on Gaza. Michigan has one of the largest Muslim populations of any US state and in the primary there in February, 100,000 voters voted “uncommitted” as opposed to supporting Biden. Michigan is one of the most crucial swing states in US elections, and Biden’s victory there in 2020 helped lead the path to the presidency. Biden’s current stance on Gaza therefore appears intensely electorally dangerous.
“The Democrats are thus a divided party engaged in internal disputed, leaving them open to attacks from Republicans”
Moreover, Biden has been weakened by the internal political divisions these student protests have ignited within his own party. One of the most prominent spokespeople of the progressive Left, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, vehemently criticised the Biden administration’s lack of support for the students and blasted the forceful actions of the police as a violation of civil rights: “It's not even about solidarity,” she says. “This is about free speech protections.” However, this response was dichotomous to the words of Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer who emphasised the need for law and order, arguing that ”smashing windows with hammers and taking over university buildings is not free speech. It is lawlessness.” The Democrats are thus a divided party engaged in internal disputes, leaving them open to attacks from Republicans.
Given the nature of these protests as being student-led, and the role they have played in dividing the Democrats, inevitable parallels have been drawn between current events and the student-led Vietnam war protests of 1968. The Democratic convention in 1968 held in Chicago (coincidentally where the Democratic convention will be this year) was dominated by scenes of violent protest and a Democratic Party consumed by internal debates and chaos. This perception of disorder paved the way for Republican candidate Richard Nixon to win the White House, and Biden will be anxious to avoid a similar situation, as famously; divided parties don’t win elections.
While these protests and subsequent debates have proven to be a political nightmare for the Democrats, they have served as political gold for Republicans. Incessant media coverage of the protests has diverted attention away from Trump’s humiliating “hush money” trial. Republican strategist John Feery highlights how the protests have reduced the Democrats’ ability to weaponize the trial, as “Democrats were trying to make a big deal out of these Trump trials but they’ve taken a back seat to the protests.” The Republicans have thus had more political capital at their disposal than the Democrats assumed.
Republicans have further framed the protests as symptomatic of a wider breakdown under Biden’s leadership, with Trump stating that “what’s going on is a disgrace to our country and it's all Biden’s fault and everybody knows it”. Meanwhile, key Republican allies of Trump such as JD Vance, who is touted as a favourite for the Vice Presidential candidacy, echoed this message on X: “No civilization should tolerate these encampments. Get rid of them.” However, despite public rhetoric vehemently opposing the protests, in reality it is in the Republican’s interests for the protests and disorder to continue, thereby allowing them to incessantly blame Biden for the ongoing situation. Political analyst Robert Tait claims that if the protests cease, this would “deprive Republicans of the images of chaos they crave.”
It is apparent that Biden only serves to lose in the current climate. If he cedes and supports the protestors, he is in danger of angering a significant proportion of his own party and willingly gives the Republicans political capital to wield at his expense. Conversely, if Biden maintains his pro-Israel stance and supports the crackdown on the protests, significant voter coalitions will become alienated, consequently obstructing his path to the White House in November. The political minefield Biden is treading seems to be littered with threats and this issue is seemingly becoming one of the most important determinants of the November election.