US Elections: Does Haley still have a chance?

Following victories in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire Primary, Trump has seen off all challengers for the Republican nominee except Nikki Haley.

Haley campaigning in Iowa ahead of the caucuses she lost convincingly to Trump - photo by Gage Skidmore

The Iowa caucus represented Trump’s first electoral test of 2024 and saw him emerge victorious with an impressive 51% of the vote in a three-way race. Despite being posited as Trump’s main opponent at the beginning of this electoral cycle, DeSantis left the race acknowledging the popularity of Trump amongst the Party: “it’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance.” This leaves former UN Ambassador and Governor Nikki Haley as the final obstacle to Trump’s nomination. The first primary of the country then saw Trump emerge victorious once again, as he defeated Haley with 54% of the vote in New Hampshire. However, Haley’s 43% of the vote did present the most significant challenge to Trump so far.

Ahead of the South Carolina primary on the 24 February, other Republicans have called for Haley to drop out due to the seemingly impossible likelihood of her gaining the Republican nomination over Trump. Analysts such as Beauchamp argue that “there’s so little chance of [former President Donald Trump] not being the nominee”  given his success in Iowa and New Hampshire. These early results arguably do not favour Haley given that she is already 16 delegates behind Trump.

However, Haley has refuted these critics and emphasised her intentions to stay in the race: “As long as I keep growing per state, I am in this race,” with “every intention of going to Super Tuesday.” The former South Carolina Governor pointed to possible  momentum she could gather given that South Carolina is her home state, highlighting, “there are dozens of states left to go. And the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.” 

Trump speaking two days before the New Hampshire primary - photo by Liam Enea

Our analysis: Haley faces a mammoth task unless the courts derail Trump

“…as long as Haley is in the race, she represents a certain wing of anti-Trumpism which acts as a thorn in the former President’s side.”

The probability of a Haley victory is not impossible but extremely unlikely. The question posed is therefore: how long can she hang on for? One of the biggest determinants of this is money, which has a disproportionate impact on US politics and, surprisingly, wealth may actually represent an advantage for Haley over Trump. The New York Times has reported that the Haley-affiliated super PAC Stand For America raised $50.1 million dollars in the last six months of 2023. This “eclipses the amount brought in by the leading super PAC backing former President Donald J. Trump” by 5 million dollars, according to the New York Times.

Additionally, AFP action, another super PAC endorsing Haley, has recently spent $2 million dollars on advertising in South Carolina ahead of the next primary. Despite electoral losses, money keeps flowing into the Haley campaign, allowing her to sustain it. This could improve her electoral outlook, given the importance of media buyouts in persuading voters in the US. Such significant donations indicate how the conservative donor class has coalesced around Haley as the anti-Trump candidate, with her appeal as a more conventional Republican encouraging investments.

Haley clinching the nomination is arguably not out of the realm of possibility given Trump’s long record of electoral losses. Following significant Republican losses in the 2022 midterms, where dozens of Trump-endorsed MAGA nominees lost to Democrats and Republicans failed to capitalise on a potential “red wave,” analysts such as Blake doubted the future success of Trump. In addition to this, under Trump’s leadership, Republicans lost the House in 2018, and in 2020 Democrats seized control of both chambers, rendering Trump the first President since 1932 to lose the House, the Senate and re-election. Trump’s poor electoral record suggests that victory over Haley is certainly not guaranteed. Indeed, Haley is a fiercer opponent to Biden, with recent polling placing her 13 points ahead of him, with the same poll showing Trump clearing Biden by only 4 points.

However, a Haley victory looks unlikely given Trump’s dominance over the GOP, and analysis of Haley’s performance in New Hampshire casts doubt on future success. New Hampshire is the 6th most college-educated state in the US, and Independents comprised 45% of the voting collation, so Haley was expected to exploit factors usually unfavourable for Trump to secure victory over him. Haley’s inability to overcome Trump there begs the question: “if she can’t win there, where can she win?”

“Perhaps Haley’s best hope lies with the courts…given Trump’s 91 felony counts and potential legal jeopardy.”

The upcoming electoral landscape, even potentially including the South Carolina primary, is also more likely to produce a Trump victory. Despite South Carolina being Haley’s home state, FiveThirtyEight’s most recent polling has Trump with 64% of the vote in South Carolina compared with Haley who is stuck with 32%. Her home advantage seems to be inconsequential in aiding her chances, as the strong evangelical demographic of the state, 35% of adults, leads voters to favour Trump. As South Carolina allocates delegates on a winner-take-all basis, a loss there would be even more detrimental to Haley than her losses in Iowa or New Hampshire. While Haley is only 16 delegates behind Trump at present, the winner takes all systems used in upcoming states could dramatically increase Trump’s lead. 

via FiveThirtyEight - for live polls see here.

Presuming Haley remains in the race, the next significant electoral test after South Carolina is “Super Tuesday” on Tuesday 2 March. Over a dozen states all vote on the same day, leading to about a third of all delegates being decided, typically leading to the emergence of a clear nominee. Politico reporter Kelly Garrity highlights how Super Tuesday “often serves to cull presidential primary fields,” which poses a risk to Haley, who is trailing Trump by 60 points in key Super Tuesday states such as Texas. Indeed, Trump’s performance thus far has been unusually strong: he is first non-incumbent to win both New Hampshire and Iowa in the modern era.

Perhaps Haley’s best hope lies with the courts. For the GOP, an alternative candidate may become necessary given Trump’s 91 felony counts and potential legal jeopardy. Analysts such as Rachel Maddow on MSNBC have argued that there is "no reason for Haley to drop out unless Defendant Trump is acquitted.”  Haley may be staying in the race not because of a foreseeable victory, but because of unforeseeable circumstances which may emerge in the volatile climate of US politics. Given the Supreme Court’s scepticism towards the idea of barring Trump from ballots, this remains a hope rather than a concrete electoral plan.

Haley’s looming electoral path, coupled with her under-performance in prior elections, might indicate Trump domination and ultimate victory. However, while Haley’s political future remains unknown, as long as Haley is in the race, she represents a certain wing of anti-Trumpism which acts as a thorn in the former President’s side.