Democracy fails early tests in 2024

Elections in Pakistan and Indonesia present warning signs for a year full of crucial elections.

Protests in London in August 2023 following the removal of Imran Khan as Pakistan’s PM despite his popularity - photo by Alisdare Hickson

2024 is democracy’s biggest year ever, with an estimated 4 billion people going to the polls. However, the results of recent elections in Indonesia and Pakistan cast an early shadow of doubt over the health of global democracy.

Pakistan’s election took place on 8 February and did not present a clear winner. Since then, a  coalition has been announced between the second- and third-largest parties: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). This means that Shehbaz Shari of the PML-N will become the next Prime Minister, despite the fact that the largest party in the national assembly is actually the Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) which won 93 out of 265 seats.

The PTI party overcame electoral odds, winning the largest proportion of seats despite interference by the country’s military. The military intended to suppress PTI candidates and supporters, leading analysts to suggest that this election has been among the least credible in the country’s 76-year history. The military’s interference involved the detainment of candidates, forced denouncements of the Party and intimidation campaigns in order to secure the victory of the PML-N or the PPP, the military’s preferred political parties.

Under a week later, Indonesian elections took place on 14 February and similarly represented a barometer test for democracy. Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, was elected to be the country’s next president with over 50% of the vote, thereby avoiding a potential run-off vote triggered when no candidate wins a majority. 

However, Indonesians have raised concerns about Prabowo due to the human rights abuses he committed while he was a general under the dictator Suharto. Prabowo’s forces committed grave abuses during Indonesia’s brutal war in Timor-Leste, and the general is also credited with kidnapping more than 20 democracy protesters, 13 of whom remain unaccounted for. Although he denies these allegations, many of his forces have been tried and convicted for these crimes. Prabowo was also barred from entering the US on the grounds of these human rights abuses.

Hendardi, who is the director of the Setara Institute for Democracy and Peace, fears that this election spells “the death of democracy”.  Indonesia has made great progress since its dictatorial past and there is growing fear among the population that Prabowo’s election may reverse this.

Our analysis: Early patterns suggest potential threats to free elections in the future

Pakistani citizens have expressed severe doubts about the legitimacy of the election results which were subject to military interference and manipulation. The power of the military to influence politics conforms with the broader history of Pakistani elections, which have often been engineered in the military’s favour. Analysts such as Sameen Mohsin Ali have highlighted this pattern: “the military has long looked to prevent the election of anyone who might try to influence policies that diverge from its entrenched interests”.

In this election, the military’s interests were significantly opposed to those of the PTI party. The PTI are the Party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is currently in prison on 31 charges including corruption, marriage law violations and revealing state secrets. It is widely believed that the military orchestrated Khan’s oustment and subsequent incarceration following his public claims that the then-army chief held a grudge against him and that the military was “above the law”.

“The Indonesian and Pakistan elections…should heed a warning about electoral interference, legitimacy, and human rights.”

The election represented the first electoral test for Khan’s former Party and showed whether it would be able to withstand the power and influence of the military.  Fearing the rise of the PTI, analysts say the military sought to gut Mr. Khan’s widespread support. Moreover, details surrounding the extent of corruption have emerged in recent days with a senior Pakistani official admitting to manipulating results in favour of the military’s interests, altering the electoral maths in 13 national assembly seats. Christina Golbaum has argued that this result has “shattered the image of Pakistan’s mightiest force” due to the distinct preference of the Pakistani population for candidates actively opposed by the military.

The international community has shared disappointment at the undemocratic nature of the election. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has said the election represented “undue restrictions on freedoms of expression, association and peaceful assembly”. Meanwhile, the European Union critiqued the targeted incarceration of political opponents by the military and said they “regretted the lack of a level playing field due to the inability of some political actors to contest the elections”.

Prabowo Subianto pictured at the Pentagon when he visited as Indonesia’s defence minister in August 2023 - photo by Alexander Kubitza via the US

In Indonesia, Prabowo was the only presidential candidate to not attend a free press event during the campaign and the only hopeful who disregarded a questionnaire by Human Rights Watch. Usman Hamid, director of Amnesty International, said that Prabowo's appointment sends a worrying signal that our leaders have forgotten the darkest days and the worst violations committed in the Suharto era." Despite concerns about human rights violations, the US was keen to praise the election in an effort to maintain strong diplomatic ties with Indonesia. According to The New York Times, this is because US officials see Indonesia as a “swing state” in the current hostile contest between the US and China, where both states are vying for strategic partners in the region.

Prabowo’s victory was significantly aided by an endorsement from the country’s incumbent president, Jokowi. This two-term president is revered nationally for introducing a universal health care system and building more than 1,000 miles of roads and highways. However, Jokowi’s backing of Prabowo has been interpreted as preferential treatment and even electoral manipulation.  Muhammad Isnur, who is head of the Legal Aid Institute Foundation of Indonesia, claimed  that “too many intricate enabling conditions and manipulations have shown the involvement of Jokowi in the election”, thus rendering the result extremely predictable.

The Indonesian and Pakistan elections are the first of many tests democracy will face this year and these early results should heed a warning about electoral interference, legitimacy, and human rights. If these results become part of a continuing global movement away from democracy, the international order faces severe challenges to its authority and legitimacy.